European Union flag Adobestock Artjazz

Euromonitor International: No-deal Brexit would impact outbound trips, while China, France and the US are highlighted as beneficiaries of increased global travel

Market research company Euromonitor International released a study at World Travel Market (WTM), about the impact from Brexit on travel in the UK and around the world.

According to the company's travel forecast model analysis, a no-deal Brexit would lead to a drop in outbound demand in 2019 and cause a ripple effect across destinations which depend on UK visitors and, looking to the longer term, the forecast is for 5 million fewer outbound departures in 2022 than would have been the case under the baseline scenario.

"With the UK economy in a state of flux, and a decline in the value of the sterling, departures would stagnate over 2018-2020," said Caroline Bremner, head of travel at Euromonitor International.

However, a drop in the value of the sterling - projected at 10% for a no-deal Brexit on top of a decline this year - would "[make] the UK more attractive to overseas visitors", Ms Bremner said.

The report found that the USA would be the source market contributing the most under a no-deal scenario but with fewer than 100,000 additional arrivals. 

A no-deal Brexit could result in implications across the globe, according to Ms Bremner.

"In Spain, where UK travellers account for 21% of inbound revenues in 2018, Brexit could reduce 2019 receipts by US$747 million, compared to a delayed free trade agreement," Ms Bremner said.

Other research by Euromonitor found that on a global scale, the travel industry is set to record strong growth with international arrivals reaching 2.4 billion by 2030, corresponding to US$2.6 trillion in incoming receipts. China, France and the US are projected to be the main beneficiaries of this growth in international travel.

Global arrivals have grown by 5% between 2017 and 2018 to reach 1.4 billion trips, which Euromonitor attributes to an upgraded economic outlook for major economies such as the US, Japan and the Eurozone. 

Other projections made by the report include an expected passenger growth rate of 6% between 2018 and 2023 for low-cost carriers; and by 2023, travel intermediaries are forecast to exceed US$2 trillion, stimulated by digital technology advances and the shift to mobile sales representing 70% of travel agents' sales last year.

"Rising incomes and middle classes lead to growing confidence among consumers globally," said Nadejda Popova, travel project manager at Euromonitor International. "Young and urban consumers are seeking out new travel experiences, driving travel and tourism trends along with more targeted services and products than ever."  


More News...

Hurtigruten introduces th…

Hurtigruten introduces three new hybrid-powered cruise ships

Hurtigruten is transforming three vessels to hybrid-powered expedition cruise ships.

Brits visiting Namibia fo…

Brits visiting Namibia for wildlife viewing and hiking activities

Namibia Tourism Board has revealed findings from a research on the UK outbound market which shows 33% of UK visitors to the country booked their visit via a travel agent...

Help clients to discover …

Help clients to discover the 'Treasures of Egypt'

Discover Egypt is encouraging agents to tap into the excitement generated by the historian Professor Bettany Hughes' new series 'Treasures of Egypt', presented on Channel Five. 

Olympic champion Jazz Car…

Olympic champion Jazz Carlin opens waterpark at Haven’s Seashore Holiday Park

Double Olympic silver medallist Jazz Carlin has officially opened the Shore Water park at Haven’s Seashore Holiday Park.

Scenic Eclipse sets sail …

Scenic Eclipse sets sail on maiden voyage from Reykjavik to Quebec

Scenic Eclipse, billed as the world's first discovery yacht, has set sail on its maiden voyage from Reykjavik to Quebec. 

Ponant is taking payments…

Ponant is taking payments in Sterling for travel agents and operators

Ponant has started taking payments in sterling for all new bookings made after July 29, which applies to all of its UK trade partners.

Hidden costs come as a sh…

Hidden costs come as a shock to holidaying families

Research from Post Office Travel Money has revealed that it is resort rip-offs that families dislike the most while on holiday abroad.

QE2 offers special rates …

QE2 offers special rates to travel agents this summer

Queen Elizabeth 2 (QE2) has announced special summer rates exclusively for travel agents as it invites them to step onboard and enjoy more for less.

Peru to get 22 new four a…

Peru to get 22 new four and five star hotels by 2021

Investments in Peru tourism sector will exceed US$789.1 million by 2021, with 22 new four and five-star hotel projects currently under construction.

CLIA announces new ship f…

CLIA announces new ship for River Cruise Conference 2019

CLIA has announced that a new river ship has been added to the River Cruise Conference, taking the total number of vessels in attendance to five. 

Great Rail Journeys acqui…

Great Rail Journeys acquires Chicago-based Vacations By Rail

Great Rail Journeys (GRJ) is increasing its presence in the US as it signed a deal to acquire Chicago-based Vacations By Rail (VBR).

Hurtigruten's MS Roald Am…

Hurtigruten's MS Roald Amundsen to be christened in Antarctica

Hurtigruten's hybrid-powered MS Roald Amundsen, in a first, will be christened in Antarctica.

Prev Next

twn Are you sure that you want to switch to desktop version?