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Euromonitor International: No-deal Brexit would impact outbound trips, while China, France and the US are highlighted as beneficiaries of increased global travel

Market research company Euromonitor International released a study at World Travel Market (WTM), about the impact from Brexit on travel in the UK and around the world.

According to the company's travel forecast model analysis, a no-deal Brexit would lead to a drop in outbound demand in 2019 and cause a ripple effect across destinations which depend on UK visitors and, looking to the longer term, the forecast is for 5 million fewer outbound departures in 2022 than would have been the case under the baseline scenario.

"With the UK economy in a state of flux, and a decline in the value of the sterling, departures would stagnate over 2018-2020," said Caroline Bremner, head of travel at Euromonitor International.

However, a drop in the value of the sterling - projected at 10% for a no-deal Brexit on top of a decline this year - would "[make] the UK more attractive to overseas visitors", Ms Bremner said.

The report found that the USA would be the source market contributing the most under a no-deal scenario but with fewer than 100,000 additional arrivals. 

A no-deal Brexit could result in implications across the globe, according to Ms Bremner.

"In Spain, where UK travellers account for 21% of inbound revenues in 2018, Brexit could reduce 2019 receipts by US$747 million, compared to a delayed free trade agreement," Ms Bremner said.

Other research by Euromonitor found that on a global scale, the travel industry is set to record strong growth with international arrivals reaching 2.4 billion by 2030, corresponding to US$2.6 trillion in incoming receipts. China, France and the US are projected to be the main beneficiaries of this growth in international travel.

Global arrivals have grown by 5% between 2017 and 2018 to reach 1.4 billion trips, which Euromonitor attributes to an upgraded economic outlook for major economies such as the US, Japan and the Eurozone. 

Other projections made by the report include an expected passenger growth rate of 6% between 2018 and 2023 for low-cost carriers; and by 2023, travel intermediaries are forecast to exceed US$2 trillion, stimulated by digital technology advances and the shift to mobile sales representing 70% of travel agents' sales last year.

"Rising incomes and middle classes lead to growing confidence among consumers globally," said Nadejda Popova, travel project manager at Euromonitor International. "Young and urban consumers are seeking out new travel experiences, driving travel and tourism trends along with more targeted services and products than ever."  

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